Plan Colombia and Beyond

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February 18, 2005

The 2006 aid request (2): the rest of the world, and the decline of the drug war

The governments of Peru and Bolivia have complained loudly about the Bush administration’s 2006 aid request. The request calls for 14 percent less aid for Peru in 2006, compared to 2004. Bolivia would get 8 percent less. (Both estimates use data from the 2006 Congressional Budget Justification for Foreign Operations, a long but very useful document. They combine military and economic aid, and exclude programs, such as Defense Department counter-drug aid, that are not part of the foreign aid request.)

Peruvian anti-drug authorities are predicting that the cuts will make it harder to fight drug trafficking. Bolivia’s foreign minister has proposed a diplomatic alliance with Peru to lobby for aid.

Bolivia and Peru are not at all unusual, though. In fact, of the 109 countries that would get more than $1 million in aid in the 2006 request, at least 50 – nearly half – are expected to get less aid next year than they did last year. Many are looking at reductions of double-digit percentages. The reason, of course, is the ballooning budget deficit, which has forced the Bush administration to seek cuts in so many foreign and domestic programs.

As a result, aid cutbacks are in store for most of the countries that saw large and steady increases since the mid-1990s because of the “war on drugs.” In addition to Peru and Bolivia, less aid may also find its way to Panama (5% less in 2006 than in 2004), Mexico (9% less), Guatemala (16% less), Brazil (18% less), Ecuador (33% less) and – unsurprisingly – Venezuela (45% less).

For its part, Colombia is likely to stay about the same in 2006 as it was in 2004. (Though the chart below shows a 3% decrease for Colombia, keep in mind that the data are incomplete: nobody – not even the Pentagon – has any idea how much of its counter-drug account the Defense Department will use to aid Colombia in 2006; this large but poorly documented source of aid could more than make up for that 3% drop.) While the overall amount will be the same, we know that non-drug programs – from the Arauca pipeline protection effort to “Plan Patriota” – are taking up a larger share, leaving less aid for counter-narcotics programs like fumigation and aerial interdiction. Colombia therefore probably will see less specifically counter-narcotics aid in 2006 than 2004.

After so many years of increases, it is intriguing to see expected reductions in counter-drug aid to the Andes and to “transit” countries like Mexico and Guatemala. The ballooning budget deficit has forced the Bush administration to show what its real international priorities are – and the drug war didn’t qualify.

What does this mean? Is this the beginning of the end of the drug war? Well, probably not. But for the foreseeable future at least, the “war on drugs” is not going to be a growth industry.

The countries that have managed to save themselves from cutbacks are those that fit in one or more of a few categories:

• Countries considered vital to the “war on terror”;
• Countries with more than 200 troops in Iraq today;
• Countries getting assistance from the White House’s new Global HIV-AIDS initiative, even if aid from other accounts is declining;
• Countries invited to apply for aid under the Millennium Challenge Account – though not all will see their applications approved; and
• Four countries – West Bank/Gaza, Sudan, Chad and Laos – whose increases owe to peace processes, humanitarian emergencies, or de-mining programs.

Of the countries that do not meet these criteria, nearly all can expect an aid cutback in 2006. Here is the data.

“War on Terror” countries (thousands of dollars)

According to the budget request, the following countries will be getting more aid because they are considered vital to the “global war on terror.” Several are specifically mentioned in the 2005 supplemental request (PDF).

Countries with more than 200 troops in Iraq (thousands of dollars) 

Countries in the Global HIV-AIDS initiative (thousands of dollars)

The following countries are beneficiaries of the White House’s Global HIV-AIDS initiative. Other aid programs to these countries, however, are generally declining.

Countries invited to apply for the Millennium Challenge program (thousands of dollars)

The Bush administration’s banner aid program, the Millennium Challenge, which will start giving aid in 2005, only assists countries that score well on a list of sixteen governance criteria (grouped under the categories of “Ruling Justly, Encouraging Economic Freedom, and Investing in People”). Eligibility does not guarantee aid: countries must submit proposals for aid and, if accepted, enter into “compacts” with the U.S. government’s Millennium Challenge Corporation. Two MCA-eligible countries, Lesotho and Vanuatu, do not appear in this list because they currently get less than $1 million in aid.

Other special cases <;/b>(thousands of dollars)