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April 19, 2005
Number three no more
Since the 1990s, it has been common for reporters and groups like ours to identify Colombia as “the third-largest recipient of U.S. military assistance.”
This actually has not been true for a couple of years. The Middle East has knocked Colombia out of the number-three spot since 2004. This year, if the Bush Administration’s supplemental request for Iraq, Afghanistan and its neighbors passes unchanged, Colombia will slip to number seven.
Here’s how we estimate that the military-aid rankings have changed since 2002. We do not provide numbers because we don’t have full confidence in our figures, but unless we indicate otherwise, our estimates show the countries listed to be at least $50 million apart.
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005, est. |
| 1.Israel | 1.Israel | 1.Iraq | 1.Iraq |
| 2.Egypt | 2.Egypt | 2.Israel | 2.Afghanistan |
| 3.Colombia | 3.Colombia | 3.Egypt | 3.Israel |
| 4.Pakistan* | 4.Jordan* | 4.Afghanistan | 4.Egypt |
| 5.Jordan | 5.Pakistan | 5.Colombia* | 5.Pakistan |
|
| 6.Afghanistan* | 6.Jordan | 6.Jordan* |
|
|
| 7.Pakistan | 7.Colombia* |
| * Estimated aid is only slightly less than that for the preceding country. 2005 figures include aid in the Bush Administration’s emergency supplemental funding request for Iraq. The Senate has not yet passed this bill. | |||
The decline in Colombia’s ranking doesn’t mean that military aid to Colombia has been reduced since 2002. In fact, our estimates show it to be significantly greater than 2002 levels, and has essentially held steady since 2003. The Bush Administration’s 2006 aid request would maintain current amounts, making Colombia one of the only countries in Latin America that is not expected to see a cutback.
However, if you accept the hypothesis that military assistance is a decent indicator of the Bush administration’s interest in a friendly country, the slippage in its ranking tells us that Colombia is a lower priority for the Bush administration than it was back in 2002. This is not news to anybody.
Meanwhile, it is still possible to say that Colombia is the number-one recipient of U.S. military assistance outside the Middle East. No other country comes close.
Posted by isacson at April 19, 2005 08:53 AM
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