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December 14, 2005
An eye on Bolivia
Bolivia’s highly contentious presidential election is only four days away, and cocalero leader Evo Morales continues to lead the polls with about 34 percent of the likely vote. The prospect of a Morales victory has many Bush administration officials in a panic.
A more immediate concern is that, under Bolivia’s system, when a candidate fails to win a majority the Congress – which is also being elected Sunday – gets to choose the president. The result, starting Sunday, could be chaos, or at least a major political crisis.
Since we focus on U.S. policy, especially U.S. military assistance, we’re not equipped to provide a thorough analysis of what is at stake for Bolivia in this week’s elections. But we are paying close attention, and reading as much as we can.
Here is a list, from Colombia Program Intern Robin Rahe, of the best recent English-language analyses of Bolivian politics available online.
- Jim Shultz of the Cochabamba-based Democracy Center offers the best concise summary of recent struggles between the government and popular will, candidate platforms, and political considerations. (See also his “Blog from Bolivia,” a very useful resource. His November 28 entry gives an insider perspective into reasons Morales might not want to form a presidential coalition.)
- In a lengthy article in the November 20 New York Times Magazine, David Rieff explores the validity of parallels between Evo Morales and Che Guevara. (Reposted at truthout.org.)
- A thorough new report from the International Crisis Group makes specific recommendations to international and domestic actors for minimizing conflict in the formation of a responsive, legitimate government.
- On the Foreign Policy in Focus website in July, Ronald Bruce St. John presents a historically-based analysis of social, economic, and political trends in Bolivia.
- In the November-December NACLA Report on the Americas, Reed Lindsay chronicles the United States’ use of “democracy promotion” programs in Bolivia.
- Kathryn Ledebur and Gretchen Gordon of the Andean Information Network proscribe U.S. intervention in Bolivia’s elections.
- In a recent Christian Science Monitor piece, Kelly Hearn investigates the growing U.S. presence in Paraguay as part of a regional strategy with Bolivia in mind.
- For a right-wing perspective, see Alvaro Vargas Llosa’s argument that Evo Morales’s grievances are the product of socialism and populism.
- In a July speech, Roger Pardo-Maurer, the senior civilian official in charge of Latin America policy at the U.S. Department of Defense, warns that Bolivia is “the objective of subversion that Cuba and Venezuela are working on as a joint project.” (PDF format)
The following Bolivia-related blogs are updated frequently:
- Blog from Bolivia (the Democracy Center)
- MABB (Miguel Buitrago)
- Barrio Flores (Eduardo Ávila)
- Ciao! (Miguel Centellas)
- Global Voices Bolivia page
Posted by isacson at December 14, 2005 11:24 AM
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