President Bush's speech and recent
remarks from administration officials do not bode
well for peace in Iraq or its neighbors.
The proposed surge of 21,500 troops -- an escalation
by another name -- is opposed by his now-deposed
military leaders on the ground and U.S. Ambassador
to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad, and dismissed by over 60
percent of Americans polled.
It is true that the Iraq Study Group suggested that
a temporary addition of troops might be necessary,
but in the context of interaction with Iraq's neighbors,
including Iran and Syria, in an effort to achieve
Iraqi reconciliation and withdrawal of our troops
as the best hope for Iraq to survive as a unitary
state.
The ISG report proposed that the president declare
that the U.S. does not intend to stay in Iraq and
that its oil belongs to the Iraqi people. Instead,
Bush refuses to establish any timetable for withdrawal,
continues to build five self-contained, permanent
military bases and the massive, city-within-a-city
embassy complex in Baghdad. And the administration's
push to pass a law that would open up Iraq's oil
reserves to foreign exploitation on sweetheart terms
is hanging over Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's
head like the sword of Damocles as it awaits his
signature.
The report's urgent recommendation that the administration
begin dialogue with Iraq's neighbors, Iran and Syria,
is dead on arrival.
The latest Iranian elections showed a precipitous
drop in support for Iran's demagogic president; 13
of the 15 seats on Tehran's Governing Council went
to the opposition, in the city where Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
was mayor before becoming president (a development
that can be compared to the 2006 midterm election
where Bush's party lost both houses of Congress).
And Iranian students are also demonstrating against
Ahmadinejad's blustering and repressive rule.
Syria has made repeated offers to dialogue with Israel
with no preconditions. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud
Olmert put extensive preconditions on talks and dismissed
Syrian proposals as not serious. When Syrian President
Bashir al-Assad publicly called his bluff with "try
me," Olmert admitted that he couldn't talk with Syria
because President Bush opposed it -- as Bush opposes
U.S. dialogue with Syria.
It seems strange that Saudi Arabia -- with a long
common border with Iraq -- is ignored, although it
has declared its intent to begin a nuclear program,
admitted that its private citizens have funded Iraq's
Sunni insurgency, and threatened open support if
the death squads and ethnic cleansing of the Sunni
minority are not controlled. It is no secret that
Saudi jihadists have been crossing into Iraq without
hindrance.
Current events emit a distinctive odor of the Vietnam
War's reality-ignored in 1968 when it was also obvious
that the war was lost. Five more years of Vietnamization
saw almost as many Americans killed as in the previous
years. We settled for peace terms in 1973 that were
attainable in 1968.
Vietnamization and invading Cambodia didn't work
then; Iraqification and invading Iran won't work
now. Saving face led to five more years of war in
Vietnam and defeat. History is repeating itself:
More Americans and more Iraqis will die for no purpose.
The region is poised to explode in a conflagration
that the surge of 21,500 or more U.S. troops in Baghdad's
sectarian fighting could ignite. An unprovoked attack
on Iran would spread the contagion, with untold consequences.
Engaging Iraq's neighbors would facilitate a withdrawal
and could work to lessen the tension that our occupation
fosters and lead to a successful conclusion. A comprehensive
Middle East peace conference -- with all the regional
actors working toward a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict based on the Arab League's 2002 offer of
Israeli recognition by all Arab countries, implementation
of U.N. Resolution 242 and negotiations to settle
all other disagreements by diplomatic means -- could
avoid the inevitable.
Jim Mullins is a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in
Washington, D.C., and a resident of Delray Beach.
Copyright © 2007, South Florida
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