Update: Guatemala’s Political Situation

Update: Guatemala’s Political Situation

By David N. Weinreb, CIP Intern

Much has occurred in the two and a half weeks since the Guatemalan Constitutional Court first published it’s controversial ruling to allow the presidential candidacy of General Efrain Rios Montt. News of this “political see-saw,” as the situation has been described, does not, for the most part, reach the United States. Since the July 14^th ruling there have been two more rulings by the Constitutional Court (CC), a masterful political maneuver executed by the Supreme Court of Justice and politically fueled violence in the streets of Guatemala City in which a journalist died (of a heart attack) and the US Embassy was forced to close.

Why did all of this occur after the former dictator and his party had already supposedly won their case at the highest levels? The answer lies in a whirlwind of political fencing worthy of the term “machiavellian” and shows definitively that Guatemala is still on shaky democratic ground as it emerges from the shadow of it’s brutal civil war.

Soon after the July 14^th CC ruling (see Guatemala’s Future Might Be Its Frightening Past, July 17^th 2003), the Supreme Court of Justice granted an injunction to the Rios Montt’s opponents, stating that the ruling was not valid since it violated the constitution and could not therefore be enforced. It was one of the few powers the CSJ (by it’s Spanish initials) could use to counter a CC decision. The FRG (Rios Montt’s political party also by it’s Spanish initials) challenged this injunction and forced a vote in the CC, which occurred on July 28^th without the two supplemental magistrates that had been appointed, with some controversy, by secret lottery for the July 14^th ruling. The FRG lost that ruling by a 3 to 2 margin, with all present justices voting exactly as they had on the 14^th. The absence of the two additional magistrates took its toll. The decision sparked a violent response by FRG supporters, who rioted in the streets of Guatemala City for days before Ríos Montt’s party called on them to desist. Some allege that the FRG had demonstrators brought into the capital and coordinated their violent attacks. [1]

While Rios Montt supporters took to the streets, more political maneuvering took place in the court system. The CSJ made a political move and the FRG countered with one of its own. It called for a CC vote , arguing that the more recent vote barring the General’s candidacy was invalid because it was made with only the five original justices and not the seven who arbitrated on July 14^th. One of these five magistrates, Nery Dighero, has repeatedly refused to arbitrate on issues proposed by Rios Montt or the FRG. He stood aside and another “lottery” of the type that elected the July 14^th supplemental justices took place, yielding Francisco Palomo to replace Dighero [2] . Mr. Palomo just happens to be one of the two supplemental justices appointed to the CC that ruled in favor of Rios Montt on the 14^th of July; his vote, allied with those of Mario Guillermo Ruiz Wong and Cipriano Soto of the University of San Carlos (again) gave the FRG a 3 to 2 majority. This ruling led to another re-vote with the seven magistrates from July 14^th in the Constitutional Court. Not surprisingly the results were exactly the same as the previous occurrence, with the same four magistrates voting yes and the same three voting no. To prevent another injunction or similar move by the CSJ, the CC ordered in its ruling that electoral officials “not honor any other action that would put Rios Montt’s candidacy in jeopardy.” [3] This proves beyond any doubt that the FRG used shadowy political maneuvering to obtain its majority in the courts. The only vote that took place in the CC without any changes made or justices added or replaced ruled against the FRG.

Even now the case is not settled. Guatemalan legal analysts state that there is still room for an appeal by the opposition on technical grounds [4] . This will no doubt occur within the coming days or weeks. Meanwhile, the outrage in Guatemala over what is perceived to be an abuse of power is palpable. Mariano Rayo, a Congressman and member of the opposition Unionist Party said that the new ruling was “absurd” and that the FRG was “disrespectful” of the constitutional state [5] . However, the new ruling states that Rios Montt must be inscribed immediately as a presidential candidate. Until an appeal is presented, then, Rios Montt’s candidacy is set to go forward.

If the General is indeed to run in the November 9^th elections, does he have a chance emerge the victor? Despite being an ex-dictator accused of genocide by the UN, Rios Montt maintains a somewhat baffling popularity, especially in rural communities that bore the brunt of his regime’s most brutal atrocities. There are various reasons for this. Efrain Rios Montt has been an “elder” in the California based Church of the Word, an Evangelical Protestant denomination, since 1978 [6] . According to the US State Department’s 2001 International Religious Freedom Report, Guatemala is at least 40% Evangelical and members of that faith have a generally higher church attendance than Catholics [7] . The report also states that Evangelicals are well represented within the FRG party, which currently controls Congress and the Presidency. These conservative denominations, which have a significant rural following, are powerful networks for rallying political support.

Outside of religious circles, General Rios Montt is a feared and respected figure in rural communities. As memories fade and events become history, many Guatemalans, especially in rural communities, gloss over the atrocities and remember the order that was instilled under the General’s rule. Compared to the insecurity and rampant criminality common in Guatemala today, the authoritarian order begins to seem like an acceptable alternative. Rios Montt might be elected out of people’s desire for stability.

The conclusion reached from all of this is grim. Rios Montt and the FRG are determined to make a fight of their cause and, if given the opportunity, have as good a chance of winning the election as anybody. If this happens, Guatemala would lose its favorable relations with both the United States and the EU. Drug traffickers and organized criminals, both allegedly tied to state agencies, would continue to enjoy their virtual impunity in conducting illegal activities. One of the world’s most unbalanced distributions of land and wealth would remain solidly in place. It is unlikely that poverty would be seriously addressed, as the General never responds to questions about his economic policies. A victory for General Efraín Ríos Montt would represent a failure on many fronts and a step backwards for Guatemala.

[1] Gonzales, David “Critics Say Guatemalan Ex-Dictator is Mob Manipulator” The New York Times, 30, July 2003 http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/30/international/americas/30GUAT.html

[2] Siglo XXI, “CC Da Nuevo Si a Rios Montt” 31 July 2003

http://www.sigloxxi.com/detallesnews.asp?pag=mg1eua01.txt

[3] Arrazola, Carlos, La Prensa Libre “Acusan a Cuatro Magistrados de Violar la Constitucion en favor de Rios Montt” 1 August 2003 http://www.miami.com/mld/elnuevo/news/world/americas/6430216.htm

[4] Yahoo! News (AFP), “Guatemalan High Court Grants ex Dictator Rios Montt Presidential Bid” 31 July 2003 http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20030731/ts_afp/guatemala_vote_030731081321

[5] Yahoo! Noticias (AP), “Corte Da Luz Verde a la Candidatura de Rios Montt en Guatemala” 30 July 2003 http://espanol.news.yahoo.com/030730/1/l91t.html

[6] St. Clair, Jeffrey CounterPunch “Back to the Future In Guatemala: The Return of General Rios Montt” 16 July 2003 http://www.counterpunch.org/stclair07162003.html

[7] US State Dept. “International Religious Freedom Report: Guatemala” 26 October 2001 http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/irf/2001/5656.htm