Center for International Policy

As aired on Australian Broadcasting Corporation

PM - Thursday, 6 July , 2006 18:14:00

Missiles Trigger Questions over North Korean Leadership

Listen to the Interview in Real Audio, Windows Media, or MP3 at www.abc.net.au

Reporter: Barney Porter

MARK COLVIN: As the diplomatic process resumes later tonight at the UN, North Korea's threat to carry out more missile tests and the warning of all-out consequences if anyone tries to stop them, has certainly raised the stakes.

Yet many Korea-watchers think there's a degree of bluster involved, and the situation's still well short of all-out confrontation.

Questions are also being raised about the North Korean leadership, and who is actually making the decision to fire the missiles.

Barney Porter compiled this report.

BARNEY PORTER: The common perception of North Korea is that Kim Jong-il has been its autocratic ruler since he took over from his father, Kim Il-Sung, in 1994.

However, while it's difficult to glean accurate information about the reclusive Stalinist state, there are suggestions that may not be the case.

SELIG HARRISON: It's not a tight ship in North Korea anymore. There are differences of views on how to do things, how to deal with the rest of the world. There are hawks and there are doves, and unfortunately the hawks got their way in this missile-firing affair.

BARNEY PORTER: Selig Harrison is from the Centre for International Policy. He says North Korea feels threatened militarily by the US, but is also being squeezed economically, which he says is not generally recognised.

SELIG HARRISON: The US Treasury has told the banks of the world not to deal with North Korea. And this has become a major concern of the Pyongyang regime, threatening their economic viability, and they, in a rather desperate gamble, have attempted to provoke negotiations with the US about this US Treasury squeeze campaign.

BARNEY PORTER: Mr Harrison says Kim Jong-il is surrounded by a military clique that runs the country and which has pushed him into a major blunder.

SELIG HARRISON: The civilian leadership, Kim Jong-il and the Foreign Ministry and so forth, have told the generals, look, we can't have missile tests, that will complicate our negotiation with the rest of the world.

Well, the military men have said look we can't develop our missiles if we can't test them. What are you getting diplomatically? And look, now the Treasury Department is telling banks everywhere they can't even deal with us. So what are you getting? What diplomatic results are you getting?

BARNEY PORTER: Despite the pressure from his generals, Mr Harrison says he believes Kim wants to introduce reforms, and plays a key role in the country's leadership structure.

SELIG HARRISON: He's very important to the military group running the country because he's the link. He's the symbol with the father, Kim Il-Sung, who was a charismatic revered figure.

Kim Jong-il, the son, is not revered. I would say he is a respected leader, he's an accepted leader, and the military men and the party leaders need him as a link with the memory of Kim Il-Sung.

BARNEY PORTER: Much has been said about the role of China - a key ally of North Korea with an important economic relationship.

Dr Rob Ayson is the Director of Studies at the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre.

He believes China will take a greater role in resolving the crisis, but it may not be as obvious as some would want.

ROB AYSON: I think Beijing still is probably more concerned about an unstable and weak North Korea than it would be about a North Korea that is developing missiles and other systems.

The big fear that Beijing has is that if North Korea collapses, that the consequences directly for China could be quite severe, in terms of floods of refugees, and a country on its border that, where there seems to be no effective internal control.

BARNEY PORTER: North Korea has vowed to carry out more tests, and also warned of all-out consequences if anyone tries to stop them. What do you think might happen next?

ROB AYSON: There may be some tests. I think what we're going to see next is some response from the Security Council. It probably won't be a resolution, it probably will be a statement, and it will be a statement in between, if you like, the strong pressure from the US and Japan for a very strong statement, and the sort of statement I think that Australia would be very interested in and perhaps the softer approach that China might want.

North Korea has certainly gained our attention, but I don't think that a resolution of this problem is anywhere soon in sight.

BARNEY PORTER: But we're certainly not approaching the brink?

ROB AYSON: That's a good question. I don't think that the use of military force is absolutely imminent, but the North Korean tests will strengthen the hands of those in Washington, and perhaps elsewhere, who argue that negotiation really isn't going to resolve or address this problem, that at some stage military force needs to be used.

So if you like we're closer to that moment, but as I say I don't think that it is particularly imminent.

MARK COLVIN: Dr Rob Ayson, the Director of Studies at the ANU's Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, ending that report by Barney Porter.