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The large aid package for Colombia that became law in July 2000 only covers the years 2000 and 2001. In 2001, Congress will consider a request for additional aid for 2002.

While the 2000-2001 aid package was a separate "supplemental appropriation," the 2002 aid request will be part of the normal federal budget process. Under this process, Congress debates and approves the executive branch's budget request by dividing it into thirteen separate appropriations bills. Nearly all aid for Colombia and its neighbors will come from two of these bills: the foreign operations (foreign aid) appropriations bill and the defense (Pentagon budget) appropriations bill.

On April 9, 2001, President Bush sent his 2002 budget request to Congress. The State Department posted the foreign operations aid request, which accounts for roughly 80 percent of all aid, to its website at http://www.state.gov/s/rpp/rls/iab/. CIP has posted a more detailed draft of the Andean region request at http://www.ciponline.org/colombia/041801.htm. The Defense Department's assistance plans for 2002 would add an additional $84.22 million in military assistance.

Colombia will see a decrease in assistance from 2000-2001, while its Andean neighbors will see large increases. The following are the Center for International Policy's estimates of aid through all channels. To find out how we derived these estimates, view the tables at the bottom of this page.

(Estimates as of May 13, 2001, subject to change.)

As the table above and the bar graph below indicate, military and police aid for Colombia will decrease by an estimated 24 percent in 2002 from 2000-2001 levels. This decrease will be almost exactly matched by increases in military and police aid for other Andean countries. Economic assistance will increase significantly in every country. Total assistance to the "Andean Initiative" countries will be about 54 percent military.

By far the most significant aid program in the foreign operations bill is International Narcotics and Law Enforcement (known variously as "INL," "INC," and "INCLE"), which appears in red in the bar graph below. Administered by the State Department, INC is the government's main counternarcotics foreign aid program. In addition to military and police aid, INC includes all social and economic aid, such as alternative development programs, assistance to displaced persons, and support for judicial reform, administration of justice, human rights and peace.

The main channel for the United States' "Plan Colombia" assistance in 2000-2001, INC in 2002 will support what the State Department is calling an "Andean counterdrug initiative" or "ACI." The ACI will distribute $731 million in 2002 through the INC budget as follows:

The decrease in military aid for Colombia does not mean that the United States is abandoning the military-based strategy set forth in last year's aid package. Assistance for Colombia's security forces has merely hit a plateau while last year's aid awaits delivery. The 2000-2001 aid package included funding to create two counternarcotics battalions in Colombia's Army (for a total of three); while one completed training last December, the third will not be ready until May 24. These battalions' expensive Blackhawk helicopters will not begin to arrive in Colombia until July, and their upgraded Huey helicopters will begin delivery in November. (Another explanation for the 2002 military-aid plateau, of course, is that 2001 is not an election year. Members of Congress feel less compelled to adopt measures that appear "tough on drugs" when not facing a campaign in the fall.)

With much aid undelivered and the battalion strategy largely untested, no new helicopters or battalions are likely for 2002. The 2002 request appears to be aimed mainly at maintaining aid and programs already in place with spare parts, fuel, ammunition, mechanics and logistics, lots of training, and an expanded aerial fumigation program. (Maintenance will not be cheap -- a Blackhawk helicopter, for instance, costs about $3,500 per hour to operate.)

The proposed increase in social and economic aid is encouraging, for it indicates a that U.S.-funded development programs may be sufficiently well-established by 2002 to absorb the additional resources. It is important to note, however, that even in an "off year" for military aid, 71 percent of the U.S. program will benefit Colombia's security forces.

Next year, we may see an aid proposal that goes beyond maintenance. Congress will consider the 2003 request in the spring of 2002, after the battalion strategy has been in place for some time and at the outset of an election year. An escalated aid program could be more likely.

Other interesting facts about the 2002 aid request for Latin America:

• The administration is calling for a 262 percent increase in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) for the Western Hemisphere (from $4.975 million in 2001 to $18 million in 2002). The largest source of military aid to the region during the 1980s, FMF was reduced to almost nothing during the 1990s as the drug war replaced the cold war. The FMF resurgence is being led by El Salvador ($3.5 million requested, up from nothing in 2001), Argentina ($2 million, up from $995,000), and Bolivia ($2 million, up from nothing), with five countries to get $1 million after receiving nothing in the past several years (Chile, Ecuador, Panama, Peru and Uruguay). $4 million goes to Colombia's neighbors, the budget presentation explains, "to counter the 'spill-over' security problems caused by the effective implementation of Plan Colombia." The large outlay for El Salvador may be inspired by gratitude for San Salvador's decision to allow U.S. military personnel to use part of the Comalapa airport as a counter-drug "Forward Operating Location" (FOL).
• The administration has also requested a 20.6 percent increase in funding for the International Military Education and Training (IMET) program in the hemisphere. A sort of "scholarship" program for foreign military trainees, IMET is to fund courses for almost 3,000 Latin Americans in 2001; if the increase in students matches the funding increase, IMET will be able to accommodate 600 more Latin American trainees in 2002. The biggest increases for 2002 are foreseen for Brazil, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Nicaragua, and Paraguay.