October 31, 2007
By Wayne S. Smith

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Just when one thinks President Bush could not possibly say anything more inane about Cuba and our policy toward it, he does. Speaking on Oct. 24, he again said that transferring power from one dictator to another, i.e. from Fidel to Raul, would solve nothing, that the day is therefore coming when the Cuban people will be free and that the American people stand ready to help them in their transition to democracy.

But that is a reiteration of what he said in the past. In May 2004, the administration issued a plan calling for an end to the Castro regime. Just a few more nudges, a few more Radio Marti broadcasts, the plan suggested, and it would be over.

Well, not quite. In fact, rather than collapsing, the Cuban economy began showing signs of reinvigoration, with an average 10 percent yearly growth rate.

But never mind reality. On July 10, 2006, the administration with much fanfare issued a new "Compact With the Cuban People," this time on grounds that we had reached a "new stage" in Cuba's transformation. How "new" was not explained. The "compact" also stressed — again — that a "succession strategy," i.e., Raul replacing Fidel, was unacceptable. Bad timing, for some three weeks later, the succession took place.

The State Department immediately rejected the transfer and both President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called on the Cuban people "to work for democratic change on the island." Sound familiar? But if the administration expected popular upheaval in Cuba calling for the overthrow of the existing system, it was to be disappointed. The Cuban people accepted the transition with calm maturity. A year and a half later, there has been not even a glimmer of popular unrest.

President Bush on Oct. 24 spoke of an international multi-billion-dollar Freedom Fund for Cuba — at least one new idea, even if the fund remains a figment of the president's imagination. Various countries, he said, would contribute, and it would be used to help rebuild Cuba, but only after the Cuban government has in effect adopted a democratic system.

Even if such a fund actually existed, it wouldn't likely interest Havana. They are already getting multi-billion-dollar inputs from Venezuela and China without any strings attached.

The president also spoke of scholarships for Cuban young people whose families suffer oppression, provided "the Cuban rulers will allow them to participate." With that kind of introduction, Cuba's rulers aren't likely to say yes. And anyway, Cubans have free education up through the university level.

The president also spoke of the need to continue to support the dissidents, the "democratic opposition" on the island. But the handful of dissidents on the island don't have anything like the capacity to bring down the government or force it to change course. Further, suggesting that they are a part of our plan to bring down the Cuban government makes it even more difficult for them to operate. And by no means do all agree with U.S. policy. One of the most important, for example, Oswaldo Paya, on July 1, 2006, published an opinion piece in The Washington Post calling for an end to the U.S. embargo and for Americans again to be allowed to travel to Cuba, a position at odds with that of the administration.

The United States should, of course, want to encourage a more open society in Cuba. But President Bush's way will not accomplish that. Rather, the more hostile and threatening the position of the United States, the more defensive the Cuban government will be. We could accomplish far more by reducing tensions and beginning a dialogue.

Meanwhile, as the Cuban people look at our still-devastated Gulf Coast in the wake of Katrina and at the flaming ruins and carnage in Iraq, where we haven't even been able to restore lights and water, they are not likely to be much impressed by President Bush's assurances that the United States stands ready to help them rebuild and make their transition to democracy. Under Bush, the U.S reputation for nation-building is at an all-time low.

Wayne S. Smith, an adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, D.C., was chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, 1979-82.