Center for International Policy

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Fidel Castro resigns as Cuba's leader
But Fidel Castro's retirement not expected to bring rapid change to Cuba.

By Mike Williams
INTERNATIONAL STAFF

Fidel Castro's departure as Cuba's president probably won't spark immediate change in the lives of everyday Cubans or a rapid thawing of the frosty relations between the communist-ruled island and the U.S., analysts said after Castro's announcement Tuesday.

Castro's announcement came in the form of a letter posted early Tuesday on the Web site of the state-run newspaper, Granma. "I am saying that I will neither aspire to nor accept, I repeat, I will neither aspire to nor accept the positions of president of the State Council and commander in chief," Castro said.

Washington's policy is unlikely to shift until a new U.S. president takes office in January 2009. And though Castro's designated heir, his 76-year-old brother, Raul, has called for economic reforms, he hasn't yet announced any dramatic new initiatives, experts said.

The next step in Cuba's unfolding new era comes Sunday, when the Cuban National Assembly elects a Council of State, the island's main governing body.

The biggest twist would be if Raul Castro isn't named president, but instead leaves the title to a younger leader while retaining his post as head of Cuba's powerful military.

"I think there's a good chance a younger leader might be named," said Jonathan Brown, a Cuba expert at the University of Texas. "If I were Raul and I was interested in opening up to the outside world, I would keep my post in the army and allow others to go out on a limb with the opening."

In his autobiography, "Fidel Castro: My Life," published this month, Fidel Castro dropped hints that his brother might not succeed him.

"He is catching up to me in years, they keep coming, so it's also a generational problem," Fidel wrote of Raul. "Already some generations are replacing others. I'm confident, but now there are new generations, because ours is passing into history."

Many experts think a top contender is Carlos Lage, 56, vice president of the council and a longtime Raul Castro ally. Lage was instrumental in drawing up economic reforms in the early 1990s when Cuba suffered under the collapse of its longtime sponsor, the Soviet Union.

Lage's stature has risen since Fidel Castro, now 81, temporarily turned over power to Raul in July 2006 after suffering from a stomach ailment that nearly killed him.

While Fidel Castro has made only a few appearances in videos and has spent his time writing long essays for Cuba's newspapers, Raul Castro has clamped down on corruption, called for increased productivity and started a national debate over Cuba's future.

Lage, meanwhile, has made high-profile trips to international events, a role that Cuba's image-sensitive leaders carefully control.

But other analysts say it is more likely that Raul Castro will emerge from Sunday's meeting as Cuba's new president, with Lage stepping up to first vice president and solidifying his position as Raul's successor.

"They will choose Raul Castro," said Wayne Smith, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy and chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana in the early 1980s. "I know there is some speculation a younger leader might be chosen, but I don't expect that. Carlos Lage will be the first vice president."

President Bush reacted to Castro's announcement Tuesday by calling again for free elections in Cuba.

"I believe the change from Fidel Castro ought to begin a period of democratic transition," Bush said.

Other top U.S. officials stated that Castro's resignation would not affect the economic embargo.

"I can't imagine that happening any time soon," Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte said.

Whoever takes over in Cuba will govern a population that is eager for change and improved living conditions. Cuba's leaders acknowledge their economy is sluggish, productivity is low, the transportation system is woeful and workers need higher wages.

"The big issue this year is whether the Cuban government, having raised expectations of economic reform, will deliver or not," said Philip Peters, a Cuba expert at the Lexington Institute. "My guess is, it increases the likelihood of reforms, but we can't predict the pace or depth of those reforms."

There is also the question of how much influence Fidel Castro will continue to exert behind the scenes. He will apparently keep his job as head of the Communist Party.

Fidel Castro, Smith said, "will give some advice. ... While Raul is inclined to move ahead with reforms, he knows there are limits beyond which he can't go without conflict with Fidel."

All three top candidates in the U.S. presidential race said Tuesday that Washington should look for ways to encourage democratic reform in Cuba. Democratic Sen. Barack Obama seemed to go furthest, saying the U.S. must be prepared to move toward normalizing relations if Cuba's new leaders "begin opening Cuba to meaningful democratic change."