Center for International Policy

Sunday, May 27, 2007

Castro's Health, Future Role Still a Mystery

By MIKE WILLIAMS
Cox News Service

HAVANA, Cuba — He's met with foreign dignitaries, smiling and looking strong in photographs. He's issued a string of energetic statements on a broad array of topics. He's even broken a long silence about his own medical condition, insisting he is able to eat solid food and maintain a stable weight.

But still Fidel Castro does not appear in public.

The aging Cuban strongman's continued absence from the public stage as he recovers from a serious illness leaves analysts pondering the 80-year-old leader's plans for resuming power and his country's future.

"My sense is that he's not going to recover sufficiently to resume the presidency," said Wayne Smith, former head of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana and now with the Center for International Policy, a Washington, D.C., think tank. "He may be able to get out a little, but he's going on 81 and has been very ill. I just don't see him coming back on a full-time basis."

Last July, Castro stunned Cuba — and sparked celebrations among Miami's Cuban exiles — by announcing that a serious illness was prompting him to turn over the reigns of power to his brother, Raul, 75.

The exact details of the elder Castro's illness have remained a closely guarded state secret. In a written statement issued on Wednesday, Castro said he had "various" operations, the first of which "was not successful and that had a bearing on my prolonged recuperation."

It is widely believed that Castro suffers from diverticular disease, in which blood can leak from the digestive system into the body cavity. The ailment is often fatal among the elderly.

Rumors have flown around Cuba and overseas during the 10 months of the communist leader's illness. Last fall he failed to appear at a major military parade and belated birthday bash, sparking a flurry of speculation that he was near death.

Over the winter, however, he appeared in several videos and photo-op settings, appearing to be stronger.

In late April, Bolivia's socialist president and Castro ally Evo Morales told the press he was certain that Castro would appear at Havana's May Day parade, an annual event he has missed only rarely in his nearly five decades of ruling Cuba.

Speculation heightened when Cuban officials granted an unusually large number of visas to foreign journalists, who often have to wait months for approval to visit the island.

But the early morning parade kicked off and concluded with no sign of the charismatic leader, leaving many average Cubans disappointed.

"All the people wanted to see him here, but it's better that he continues to rest," said Aida Rodriguez, 34, a sociologist who marched with tens of thousands of others in the parade.

Castro's recent statement is the most detailed yet issued by Cuban authorities about his condition. It was still short on specifics, with Castro boasting that he is now able to eat and take medicine orally after a long period of intravenous treatment.

"I tell everyone simply that I am getting better and maintain a stable weight of about 80 kilograms (176 pounds)," Castro said in the statement. He added that the greatest risks he faces now are his advanced age and the impact of not having taken good care of his health over the years.

Analysts say Castro's illness has already triggered a transition to a new era in Cuba, although with his apparent recovery things now appear in limbo.

"It leads to a very difficult situation," Smith said. "Raul is president, but he really isn't president as long as Fidel is in the wings."

Raul Castro, who is known for his pragmatism, surprised many last fall by calling for a debate over Cuba's economic system and its future. He also blasted inefficiency, filching and lackluster performance in state enterprises, sparking speculation that he might open the economy to more private opportunity, something he has supported in the past.

But the debate seems to have been shelved, at least for now, and experts theorize that may signal that Fidel Castro is once again wielding at least partial power behind the scenes.

"When you see a study that could result in economic changes put in deep freeze, it's a sign that Fidel is emerging again," said Philip Peters, a Cuba expert at the Lexington Institute, another Washington think tank.

Cuban exiles hopeful that Fidel Castro's illness might spark rebellion and a dramatic change in Cuba have been disappointed. There have been no demonstrations, no public leadership squabbles and no signs of unrest among the Cuban population in the months since the power-shift was announced.

With Castro apparently recovering but the question of exactly how large a role he will assume in Cuba's day-to-day affairs unknown, the island's immediate future remains a mystery. While many Cubans privately say they want more opportunity and a political opening, most who are willing to speak publicly have only praise for Castro.

"We are with Fidel 100 percent," said Lieter Nunez, 19, a journalism student who attended an international youth conference in Havana recently. "We hope he will be with us for 100 more years."

Copyright Cox Newspapers 2005