Center for International Policy

June 11 2006

Latin nations' tilt to left boosts Castro's stature

Ignored in '90s, Cuba now forging ties with several anti-U.S. allies

By Ian Katz
Havana Bureau

HAVANA · For Fidel Castro, it was surely a satisfying moment. Presidents Hugo Chavez and Evo Moralesof Venezuela and Bolivia, respectively, were in town to launch a regional socialist mini-bloc and thumb their noses at the Bush administration.

Morales called Castro "the revolutionary grandfather."

The communist leader, delighted with the attention at the late April meeting, proclaimed himself "the happiest man in the world."

These are heady times for Castro the ideologue, who will turn 80 on Aug. 13.

After being largely ignored by the world in the 1990s, he is now enjoying a streak of relatively good fortune.

In Morales, who announced upon his return home that he was nationalizing Bolivia's oil and gas industry, Castro has a new anti-American ally to go along with the fiery Chavez.

Several other presidents in the region lean left, though leaders such as Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil, Nestor Kirchner in Argentina and Michelle Bachelet in Chile are far more moderate than Chavez or Morales.

"The Cuban government is feeling a lot more self-confident than at probably any time since the fall of the socialist bloc," said Julia Sweig, director for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "There is a feeling of relishing this moment. It feels like they are definitely sowing their oats."

At the same time, the Bush administration's image in the region is being pummeled, which boosts Castro's stature in the region, analysts say.

"Our standing in Latin America has never been lower," said Wayne Smith, director of the Cuba program at the Center for International Policy in Washington and former head of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana. "And it's not just Iraq. It's a whole lot of things."

Latin America feels ignored by Washington and is unhappy that the United States invaded Iraq.

Analysts say other factors that have hurt Latin American confidence in the United States include the Abu Ghraib scandal, the detention of terrorism suspects at Guantanamo Bay, the ongoing U.S. debate over illegal immigration and even the government's response to Hurricane Katrina.

For Castro, this has been a dramatic turnaround. The fall of the Berlin Wall had isolated Cuba, as nation after nation in Eastern Europe walked away from communism.

In the 1990s, Latin American countries began subscribing to the so-called Washington Consensus promoting free-market reforms. Most of the region's leaders treated Castro coolly, and his anti-capitalist tirades often fell on deaf ears.

But from Argentina to Venezuela, opinion polls showed disenchantment rising as U.S.-backed economic reforms failed to live up to expectations, especially for the poor. In the past few years, voters throughout the region have turned to candidates who pledged a larger role for the state in fighting poverty and unemployment.

"The neo-liberal economic program didn't work, so [Latin Americans] rejected it and are moving away from us," Smith said.

How this regional mood shift and Castro's revival might affect ordinary Cubans remains to be seen. So far, any benefits have come almost entirely from Castro's relationship with Chavez.

Venezuela sells Cuba 90,000 barrels of oil a day on favorable terms that include Cuba sending doctors, teachers and agricultural products to Venezuela.

The deal allows Castro to pay for social and transportation services that Cuba otherwise might not be able to afford.

The oil inflow further emboldens Castro, said Carmelo Mesa-Lago, a Cuba economic analyst and professor emeritus at the University of Pittsburgh.

At the April meeting in Havana, Bolivia's Morales joined Castro and Chavez in what they call a "People's Trade Agreement," which proposes that Latin American nations share among themselves trade and other economic agreements as an alternative to the U.S.-backed Free Trade Area of the Americas.

It's unclear whether Castro will gain more friends in the region, but he lost a potential ally in Peru last Sunday when moderate leftist Alan Garcia won a presidential runoff against Ollanta Humala, a left-wing nationalist supported by Chavez.