Center for International Policy

July 17, 2006

New U.S. Blueprint Envisions Democratic Cuba After Castro

By ANITA SNOW The Associated Press

Tampa Tribune

HAVANA - What will Cuba be like when Fidel Castro is gone? Washington and Havana have - no surprise - startlingly different versions of a post-Castro Cuba, and many dissidents on the island complain they will be caught in the middle.

In Washington's scenario, presented last week by a presidential commission, a democratic Cuba will endorse multiparty elections and free markets and become a new ally to be rebuilt with U.S. assistance after nearly five decades of communism.

But Castro, who apparently is in good health and will turn 80 on Aug. 13, has been fortifying the ruling Communist Party to ensure the status quo long after his death. He plans to hand over power to his 75-year-old brother, Raul, the first vice president of Cuba's Council of State.

The key aim of the 93-page report by the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba is to halt that succession.

It recommends that the United States spend $80 million over two years to encourage that change, saying Cubans could appeal to the United States for food, water and other aid. It envisions U.S. technicians rebuilding schools, highways and bridges; financial specialists designing a new tax system; and the United States helping Cuba join the International Monetary Fund.

"The greatest guarantor of genuine stability in Cuba is the rapid restoration of sovereignty to the Cuban people through free and fair, multiparty elections," the report says.

Other experts say the commission is being unrealistic.

"We need a reality check here," said Wayne Smith, America's top diplomat to Havana from 1979 to 1982. "Anyone who knows Cuba knows the Cuban people aren't going to rise up against a successor regime."

Dissidents in Cuba say they appreciate the gesture but fear it will backfire and lead to more arrests. In 2003, 75 dissidents were arrested and accused of being "mercenaries" receiving U.S. aid - a charge the activists denied.

Opposition member Manuel Cuesta Morua called the U.S. offer a "poisonous embrace."

"Those are 80 million arguments for the Cuban government to make it seem all Cuban dissidents are financed by the United States," he said.

The dissident community has not fully recovered from the 2003 arrests, and no Cuban opposition leader has emerged with widespread support.

Cuba also lacks the powerful nongovernment institutions that existed in communist-era Poland, where the Solidarity movement, organized around a strong Roman Catholic church and labor unions, managed to topple the Communist leadership.

The U.S. report has been well-received in Miami, where U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Cuban-born Republican, said it shows "the strong commitment of President Bush to help the Cuban people free themselves from the shackles of their brutal oppressor."

But Smith calls the U.S. report "pure pie-in-the-sky."

"The reality will end up being somewhere between those two visions, and probably closer to the Cuban succession plan - with the addition of popular pressure for economic reforms," said Smith, who leads the Cuba program at the Center for International Policy, a foreign policy institute in Washington.