What's Behind News of Russia-Latin America Military Ties?

Q&A with Wayne S. Smith, as published in the
Inter-American Dialogue's Latin American Advisor

July 31, 2008

Question: Last week, the Venezuelan government denied a report that President Hugo Chavez invited Russia to install a military base in his country, while Russia denied a separate report that it planned to station long-range nuclear bombers in Cuba. What's behind the reports and denials? Do you see a future Russian military presence in Latin America? What would be the Hemisphere's reaction?

Answer: No, I do not think a Russian military presence in Latin America is likely at this time. What the present brouhaha seems to stem from is Russian unhappiness over Washington's intentions to build a missile shield in the Czech Republic and Poland, supposedly to defend against missiles launched from Iran.

The threat from Iran seems farfetched, thus doubtless exciting Russian suspicions that this is somehow aimed against them. Thus, they wish to hint (but not actually say) that they will retaliate in unpleasant ways. We therefore have an unidentified Russian official (though described by the newspaper Izvestiya as someone 'there is no reason not to trust') stating that when "they put their missile defense system in Poland, our strategic bombers will be landing in Cuba."

Izvestiya goes on to say that their calls to officials for confirmation drew a number of evasive answers, such as "it cannot be said that such suggestions are groundless." Eventually, however, Ilshat Baychurin, acting chief of the Ministry of Defense Press Service and Information Directorate, did give at least a partial denial by saying that, "by virtue of its peace-loving policy, Russia does not create military bases close to the borders of other states." On the other hand, the Russians make it clear that they have every right to use Cuban airfields. Responding to US Air Force General Norton Schwartz's statement that if the Russians deployed strategic bombers to Cuba, they would "have crossed a line," the Russians described it as "childish and inappropriate."

Anatoliy Kornukov, the former commander of the Russian Air Force, noted that "Russian strategic bombers have the right to use airfields in any country, including Cuba, if the leadership of that country does not object."

On the other hand, Kornukov said he doubted that the permanent presence of strategic bombers in Cuba is expedient from the military point of view. In other words, they have the right to fly in and out any time they want, but they aren't likely to establish a permanent base.

How energetically they press their right to fly in and out probably depends upon how insistently the Bush Administration presses forward with its missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland, which even many in the US and Europe regard as a harebrained scheme. As Bush has only a few months left in office and there is hope that a new administration would be less enthusiastic about the system, there seems a good chance that this is a problem with an obvious solution waiting to happen!

Wayne S. Smith is the former Chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana (1979-82) and is now a Senior Fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, D.C.