Cuba,
North Korea and the University of Miami's Unfortunate Analysis
Published in the February Edition of CubaNews
By
Wayne S. Smith
In its January edition, CUBANEWS carries an analysis prepared
by the University of Miami's Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American
Studies entitled "Cuba, North Korea and Weapons of Mass Destruction."
Essentially, the thrust of this analysis is that Cuba is not strengthening
its military and holding maneuvers because of any threat from
the United States; rather, it is doing it to reassert the military's
dominant institutional role and assure an orderly transition after
Castro's demise. The analysis goes on to say that the Cuban military
manages the island's lucrative tourism industry; indeed, that
the island's tourism earnings are in the hands of Cuba's Defense
Ministry.
Thus, the analysis goes on to suggest, the only question is what
new armaments Cuba intends to acquire with all that money? And
the University of Miami's response to that is North Korean Scud
missiles. They claim Dr. David Kay stated on ABC News back in
2003, when he was leading the Central Intelligence Agency's WMD
investigations in Iraq, that his team "had found evidence
of North Korean missiles going to Cuba."
Let us answer these assertions one by one. First, the matter of
North Korean missiles. There is no evidence whatever that Cuba
is acquiring, has made any effort to acquire, or has any intention
of trying to acquire North Korean missiles of any kind, let alone
Scuds. Selig S. Harrison, the Chairman of the Task Force on U.S.
Korea Policy at the Center for International Policy, called Dr.
Kay and asked him about it. Dr. Kay responded that he "misspoke"
when he referred to "North Korean missiles going to Cuba."
On the contrary, he told Harrison, "I found no evidence whatsoever
that there was any North Korean-Cuban connection on missiles."
Second, the idea that the military runs the tourism industry and
controls all the funds derived from tourism is false, or grossly
exaggerated. Gaviota, one of the travel agencies handling tourism,
is indeed run by the military. But it is only one of many and
by no controls all the funds derived from tourism - or even the
majority of funds. Note that there is also a Ministry of Tourism
and agencies such as HAVANTUR much larger than Gaviota.
Finally, the idea that Cuba is strengthening its defenses to reassert
the dominant role of the military and not because of any concern
over a U.S. invasion is absurd on the face of it and completely
ignores the stated U.S. position toward Cuba. Let's look at the
facts. The Bush administration, under its doctrine of preemptive
war, claims the right to attack any country deemed a potential
threat to U.S. security. It has stated openly that Cuba is such
a threat. At the same time, it states publicly that its objective
is "to bring an end to the Castro government."
Given this threatening posture on the part of the Bush administration,
Cuba, in prudence, must prepare for the worst. We at the Center
for International Policy doubt that the Bush administration really
intends to attack Cuba. It already has more than it can handle
in Iraq and Afghanistan. But prudence is not its strong suit.
No one can be certain what it will do. The Cubans, therefore,
are probably right to get ready for any eventuality.
Wayne S. Smith is a Senior Fellow at the Center for International
Policy in Washington, D.C.
