Within three weeks of our "shock and awe" cruise missile attack on Iraq, an insurgency was born that is stronger than ever four years later. Israel's August invasion of Lebanon with a "shock and awe" air attack designed to destroy Hezbollah boomeranged. General Michel Aoun, a Maronite Christian, allied his forces with Hezbollah, thus ending the ancient sectarian divide and with both more politically popular than ever.
The neocon dream of controlling Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and finally Iran has turned into a nightmare. Does anyone in their right mind believe that a "shock and awe" attack on Iran would not have the Iranians coming together in a solid front against their attacker just as they did against Saddam Hussein in 1981 and as the American people came together in common cause against Osama bin Laden after 9-11.
Just as in Iraq before the U.S. invasion, the International Atomic Energy Agency has come up empty in investigating U.S. intelligence leads on Iranian violations of the Non Proliferation Treaty. Iran maintains that it has started enriching uranium as its legal right to supply fuel for its Russian built nuclear power plant.
Iran and the United States have issues with each other. Iranians remember well how they managed to achieve complete independence from British control after WWII. They dethroned the Shah, adopted a modern constitution and elected a democratic government.
The CIA overthrew the government and reinstalled the Shah. His son, Reza Shah Pahlevi, was supported by the United States in a campaign to make Iran the largest military power in the Middle East. He began a nuclear program with U.S. blessing. Power led to megalomania. His secret police, the Savak, were notoriously brutal. Amnesty International described Iran as having "a history of torture beyond belief."
Opposition led by the Ayatollah Khomeini led to the Shah's abdication and departure. Iran's attempt to extradite him was blocked by President Carter who allowed him to enter and refused to extradite him.
Riots broke out in Tehran in response, the U.S. Embassy was taken over by students and Embassy personnel were held hostage for over 400 days. They were released on the day of Ronald Reagan's inauguration.
Iran expressed deep sympathy for America on 9-11, denounced Osama bin Laden, attended the Bonn conference on Afghanistan, pledged twice as much as the U.S. for Afghan reconstruction, brokered differences within Afghanistan's fledgling government and worked to get acceptance of its constitution.
George Bush returned the favor weeks later by branding Iran as one of the "Axis of Evil" and rejected a later Iranian government offer to negotiate all issues between the two countries.
The U.S. buildup of massive military force facing Iran in the Persian Gulf is having a destabilizing effect.
In the last few days, Turkey has threatened to invade Kurdish Iraq, Algeria and Morocco have had terrorist incidents. Covert actions in Iran's Baluchistan area are fomenting terrorist attacks. Well over a million Iraqis demonstrated over the weekend in a demand that America leave.
Do we really need to blow up a country of 70 million people compounding the disaster facing us in Iraq or should we insist on the Iraq Study Group's advice to bring Iraq's neighbors including Iran and Syria to the table in a regional conference?
Jim Mullins is a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, D.C., and a resident of Delray Beach.
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